Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[superchuck500]

 

[SamAndreas]

U.S. orders diplomats’ families to leave Ukraine, urges Americans to depart

The authorized and ordered departures followed assurances by Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the U.S. and allied nations are prepared to counter Russia.

www.politico.com

The United States is ordering the relatives of American embassy staffers in Ukraine to leave the country, while giving certain diplomats the option to depart, the State Department said on Sunday, in the latest sign that American officials think Russia is likely to once again invade Ukraine.

The authorized and ordered departures followed assurances by Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the U.S. and allied nations are prepared to counter Russia if it continues its aggressive actions toward Ukraine. Blinken said on Sunday that officials were readying an array of options to respond to various moves by Moscow, although a diplomatic resolution was the preferred path.

“We’re prepared either way,” Blinken said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “Basically, at this point, the choice is Vladimir Putin’s,” he said of the Russian president, who previously invaded Ukraine in 2014.

Senior State Department officials, in announcing the departure decisions for U.S. Embassy staff and their families in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, reiterated earlier warnings that American citizens should avoid travel to the country at this time. U.S. citizens currently in Ukraine should consider leaving by commercial airlines or other available means, the officials added.

At the end of the article there's an obscene critter named McCaul-R-Texas talking who's home apparently is in the stanky end of a septic tank.

 

[nolaspe]

Nuanced take by traitor tot jr...

 

[B4YOU]

Really excellent piece here at FP. Note that "liberalism" in this context does not refer to American "liberal politics" but to a school of thought in foreign policy that contrasts with the "realism" school.

Liberal Illusions Caused the Ukraine Crisis

The greatest tragedy about Russia’s potential invasion is how easily it could have been avoided.

foreignpolicy.com

Excellent article! But I think it’s too late to avoid conflict.

Crimea showed Putin there was no outside cost for the conquest of former Soviet nations. I think Russia invades in March/April when the weather warms up. They’ll split the nation along the language divide in Ukraine. This would landlock Ukraine and economically squeeze the new, smaller nation.

 

[The moose]

Excellent article! But I think it’s too late to avoid conflict.

Crimea showed Putin there was no outside cost for the conquest of former Soviet nations. I think Russia invades in March/April when the weather warms up. They’ll split the nation along the language divide in Ukraine. This would landlock Ukraine and economically squeeze the new, smaller nation.

Well the Germans choice to go away from nuclear and get on the tit of Russian Gas for all the energy needs of the country screwed any unified actions against Russia.

If the country you want to hold in check has the access to your power you have no power..

This is the biggest problem here whatever happens Germany now becomes a bystander. They won't kill their economy for another country that can't do a thing for them.

When the 4th biggest country by GDP in the world is really not on your side because of a light switch makes all this a mess.

 

[samiam5211]

If we opened up our oil production full blast, how long would it take to make a dent in Russia's economy?

I would be fine with drill baby drill, and us supplying Germany with as much as we could if it would give Russia less leverage.

 

[The moose]

If we opened up our oil production full blast, how long would it take to make a dent in Russia's economy?

I would be fine with drill baby drill, and us supplying Germany with as much as we could if it would give Russia less leverage.

Well it is natural gas and no way shape or form could we compete price with them with our wages and transport.

 

[insidejob]

I want few things more than to see Putin literally get birch slapped by some foreign leader.

 

[samiam5211]

Well it is natural gas and no way shape or form could we compete price with them with our wages and transport.

If Trump was still president, we could start work on a pipeline that runs under the entire Atlantic Ocean.

 

[superchuck500]

"Exercies"

 

[SamAndreas]

This article attempts to be above the rest.

Big clue war is about to start in Europe

New images show that last-minute preparations for invasion are well underway.

www.nzherald.co.nz

But there's one last move he's yet to make.

"Russia is going to need to call up reservists out of civilian life if it is serious about invading and occupying all or most of Ukraine," says Colonel John Barranco. "That's going to have an economic impact and cause discontent among the public, so Moscow is unlikely to do it unless it's serious."

They've done a soft mobilization, and last week we began a soft mobilization. I've been looking for it but I haven't seen signs of a hard mobilization by either side.

 

[zztop]

wonder how the state controlled media in Russia is portraying all this

 

[SamAndreas]

wonder how the state controlled media in Russia is portraying all this

They say it's us. That we're projecting all of this. This is the latest from Tass:

Diplomat blasts Westâs âRussian invasion of Ukraineâ rumors as cover-up for its own gambit

Britain has been delivering weapons along its Air Force military transport planes to Ukraine for several days now, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova noted

tass.com

MOSCOW, January 20. /TASS/. The West’s claims of Russia’s alleged preparations for an invasion of Ukraine serve as an information cover-up in order to plot its own provocations, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday.

"Western and Ukrainian media outlets and officials have been increasingly engaged in rumors of Russia’s pending invasion of Ukraine. This is how they formulate it. We are certain that this crusade is aimed at creating an information cover-up for preparing their own large-scale provocations, including those of a military nature, that may have the most tragic consequences for regional and global security," the spokeswoman explained.

Moscow’s fears are confirmed by the West’s genuine inflammatory acts, the diplomat stressed.

"Britain has been delivering weapons along its Air Force military transport planes to Ukraine for several days now. At least six flights have been arranged and each plane can carry up to 77.5 tonnes of cargo on its board, that is, around 460 tonnes of armaments in total," the spokeswoman pointed out.

This is what they lead with and have stressed. I've already commented on that movement by air craft from Britain. In any real sense it amounts to almost nothing. And over the last several days it doesn't appear to have been a sustained movement, six flights out of England and about the same sent so far by us. That doesn't justify what Tass is making of it, but it's not unexpected from Tass either.

 

[samiam5211]

They say it's us. That we're projecting all of this. This is the latest from Tass:

Diplomat blasts Westâs âRussian invasion of Ukraineâ rumors as cover-up for its own gambit

Britain has been delivering weapons along its Air Force military transport planes to Ukraine for several days now, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova noted

tass.com

This is what they lead with and have stressed. I've already commented on that movement by air craft from Britain. In any real sense it amounts to almost nothing. And over the last several days it doesn't appear to have been a sustained movement, six flights out of England and about the same sent so far by us. That doesn't justify what Tass is making of it, but it's not unexpected from Tass either.

Yea, the Russians have been using the same playbook for almost 100 years.

Do something and say it's not them doing the doing, they are just responding to the doing being done by someone else.

 

[SamAndreas]

Yea, the Russians have been using the same playbook for almost 100 years.

Do something and say it's not them doing the doing, they are just responding to the doing being done by someone else.

Yeah, they take after Ann Coulter.

 

[MT15]

Projection has become depressingly common among the Republican Party as well.

 

[Bolo]

Putin is like the IRL Palpatine. Dudes remained in power forever. Next thing you know, he's gonna start asking people if you ever heard the tragedy of Darth Plagueis the wise.

 

[MT15]

Since @Farb asked why we should support Ukraine, and we tried to answer but none of us are foreign policy experts, here is a thread with reasons. Not too long a read: